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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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